She took a good late run at the talented Blowout going this distance at Churchill Downs two back and would be awfully difficult for this field to beat with a similar effort to that. All of her prior efforts in this country were pretty solid. She was always going to be a little overmatched there, and her rider basically just protected her once it was clear that she wasn’t going to be competitive at the quarter pole. New York Girl could go favored in this spot as she drops out of the Grade 1 Just a Game. As long as Tyler Gaffalione can get him out of the gate this time, he figures to be tough for the aforementioned two to hold off. This colt was somewhat green at the start of his career, but he’s steadily moved forward and I think his last effort may have been a turning point. He was facing a slightly better field that day and did well to make up ground in a race that featured a fairly moderate pace. His last effort at Belmont suggests that he’s taken a step forward for Tom Morley. He seemed to badly lose interest midway through his only recent dirt start on June 4, and I’m skeptical that he’s up to competing at this level in his return to the main track.
I’m more skeptical of Megatap, who was facing fields of questionable quality when he achieved his best results on dirt at the start of his career. I still don’t totally trust a horse who has run his best dirt speed figures over sealed tracks in off-the-turf events, but he is the one to beat. However, it should be noted that Gargan is 5 for 7 (71%, $2.89 ROI) first off the claim with a 50% tag drop. It seems like a negative that this horse is returning for a $25k tag after getting claimed for $50 over two months ago. Lookin for Loki will probably go favored as he makes his first start off the claim for Danny Gargan.
I have some reservations about both horses who could take the most money in this spot.